Should you shoot more skip shots? It depends.

By Joey Gullikson

Coaches often tell players not to shoot skips shots. Perhaps they are trying to emphasize the importance of body-control while shooting, or they believe skip shots are likely to miss. But does the data back up the hypothesis that skip shots are less likely to score?

Skip Shot Study

I conducted a study in which I tracked over 7,000 shots during the 2016 and 2017 men’s collegiate water polo seasons and the 2019-2020 women’s collegiate water polo season. The study showed that balls that hit the water before reaching the goalie―aka skip shots―actually have the highest scoring odds of all shot types. In fact, during the 2016 and 2017 men’s collegiate water polo seasons, skip shots were more than twice as likely to result in a goal than normal shots (123% odds increase). Similarly, during the 2019-2020 women’s collegiate water polo season, skip shots were statistically significant (p-value [or probability of obtaining the result] ≤ 0.05) when compared to all other shot types.

Shot Types

There are four shot types that affect shooters’ scoring odds:

Normal: A shot thrown at full power that does not hit the water before reaching the goal or goalie.
Skip: A shot throw at full power that hits the water before reaching the goal or goalie.
Lob: A finesse shot that arches over the goalie and reaches a peak above the top goal post before reaching the goal or goalie.
Backhand: A shot thrown while the shooter’s back is facing the goal with the arm movement of a reverse throwing motion.

Why do skip shots score?

Skip shots are more likely to score than other types of shots because of the variability of the ball’s angle and direction after “skipping” off of the water, which makes it difficult for goalies to save. For example, a ball being skipped may (1) skim along the water, (2) bounce up a little bit, or (3) bounce up a lot. Additionally, depending on the spin of the ball or if the ball hits a “wake” in the water, the ball may bounce in a different direction than the original trajectory of the shot.

Shot Types in Power Play Scenarios

Figure 1

Men’s Normal Shots (Left Two) vs. Skip Shots (Right Two) During Power Play Scenarios.

Figure 1 shows four heat density maps of normal shots, goals from normal shots, skip shots, and goals from skip shots during power play scenarios. You can see that the majority of normal shots came from position 3 (all positions will be described by 6 on 6 front court positions), while the majority of skip shots came from positions 1 and 5. A high volume of normal shots were attempted from position 3, and scored at a high percentage from position 3. This data yields an interesting conclusion: skips are the most successful type of shot from positions 1 and 5, while normal shots are the most successful from position 3. So, if a shooter is attempting a normal shot on a power play scenario or you are a coach developing power play tactics, a “good” normal shot is center cage slightly outside 5 meters; and it is better to shoot a normal shot than a skip shot from position 3 during power play scenarios.

We have the data, now let’s dissect why normal shots taken from position 3 are more likely to score than skip shots taken from position 3.

Figure 2

Power Play Scenario When Ball Is At Position 3 (6 vs. 6 Front Court Positions)

When shooting from position 3, normal shots are better than skip shots on power play scenarios for 2 main reasons:

Teams tend to pack back their defense in attempt to have multiple blockers on each offensive player &
There are more bodies in front of the cage and consequently less area for an offensive player to skip the ball.

As you can see in Figure 2, when the ball is at position 3, there are 5 people in front of the shooter (2 offensive players and 3 defensive players), resulting in virtually no space for a shooter to Skip the ball.

Skip Shots From Position 1 vs. Skip Shots From Position 5

In Figure 1, you see an almost equally high volume of skip shots attempted from positions 1 as position 5. However, skip shots taken from position 1 scored at a much lower rate than skip shots taken from position 5. Why?

Why did the right side of the pool score better on power play opportunities than the left side of the pool?

Figure 3

Right-Handed Skips (Left Two) vs. Left-Handed Skips (Right Two) On Power Play Scenarios

Figure 3 depicts right-handed skip shots taken (attempted far left, and scored second from the left) vs. left-handed (attempted second from the right, and scored far right) skip shots taken during power play scenarios. You can see that right-handed shots from position 1 yield a high volume of shots and score at a high rate, indicating that it’s a high quality shot. Interestingly, Figure 3 also shows that left-handed shooters (right) tend to score at a high percentage over a larger area of water. Left-handers’ ability to score at a high percentage accounts for the discrepancy between right-side scoring percentage compared to left-side scoring percentage.

Unsurprisingly, in NCAA women’s water polo we see that left-handed shooters score skips better than right-handed shooters in power play situations. One of the main reasons left-handed shooters score skips better than right-handed shooters in power play situations is because they primarily play position 5, which is the best power play position to shoot skips from.

Let’s break the scoring percentages down further!

To compare normal shots and skip shots, let’s look at their respective scoring percentages. In power play situations, normal shots scored at about 38% while skip shots scored at about 62%. That’s a larger point-per-shot discrepancy than the NBA 3-pointer vs. the 2-pointer! And, as we know, the way the NBA is going, “If you can’t shoot the three, you aren’t in the league!”

Figure 4

Power Play Scenarios Finding Shooting Lines from Position 1 & 5

All too often defensive players on 6 on 5 get pulled out of position, allowing offensive players at positions 1 and 5 to (1) shoot past only one defender (either under their arm or over their head) and (2) catch and shoot past an out-of-position defender. Figure 3 shows position 1 attacking one defender, and position 5 “finding shot” behind the defensive player. These two positions score skip shots best in 6 on 5 situations because they are close in proximity to the goal, the offensive player only needs to shoot past one defender, and it is easier to beat the goalie because the ball can move freely from one side to the other, making it extremely difficult for the goalie to keep up with the ball movement.

In a typical game, each team earns 6-7 exclusions per game. Out of 7 power play opportunities, normal shots are predicted to score 2-3 goals, whereas skip shots are predicted to score 4-5 goals. These slight modifications to power plays alone can be the difference between winning and losing a game!

Does shooting hand matter when looking at skips vs. normal shots?

In collegiate men’s water polo, left-handed shooters scored better than right-handed shooters across every shot type (skip, backhand, normal, and lob): skip shots (left handed shooters scored 7.68% better than right-handed shooters), then lob shots, normal shots, and backhand (1.77% better).

This can likely be attributed to the fact that in NCAA men’s water polo there are fewer left-handed water polo players than right-handed ones, and therefore the left-handed athletes that play NCAA water polo are typically more high-end overall than the average of all the right-handed water polo players (i.e. right-handed scoring percentages get muddied down because of all the lower-end right handed players that take shots). Therefore, lower-end right-handed shooters need to pass more and shoot less. By doing so they will increase their shooting percentage (goals/total shots). Here’s an eye-opening stat: left-handed shots scored at 75% on power play situations, and 19% better than right-handed shots.

In NCAA women’s water polo, right-handed shooters scored better than left-handed shooters across all shot types except for lobs; lob (left-handed shooters scored 5.87% better than right-handed shooters), then skip, and normal (right-handed shooters scored 0.21% better than left-handed shooters). (Note: The study excluded a comparison on backhands because there were too few left-handed backhand shots to compare.)

Therefore, it is important for teams to track each individual’s shooting percentage so that they have a better understanding of each player's ideal shot volume per game. Remember, the average shooting percentage is 33%, or 1 goal for every 3 shots taken. The top NCAA water polo players score above 50%.

Before we go, let’s briefly examine other shot types…

Interestingly, in NCAA men’s water polo, backhand shots and lob shots did not differ significantly from normal shots. However, on the women’s side, skip shots were significantly more successful than lob shots and normal shots, and there was no significant difference between lob and normal shots. Game conditions under which shots are taken may, however, influence shot outcomes. For example, lob shots are often taken out of desperation when the clock is counting down, come at opportunistic times (e.g., when the goalkeeper is out of position), or when a shooter is not confident in his or her ability to skip or shoot a normal shot (e.g., there are lots of blocks in the shooter’s way, bad angle, etc.). Similar to lob shots, backhand shots are thrown without the shooter looking at the goal, and there’s a level of “hope” that it will go somewhere the goalie isn’t or that the shooter is able to take advantage of the element of surprise.

Figure 5

Men’s Lob Shots Taken (Left) vs. Lob Shots Scored (Right)

Figure 4 shows that the majority of lob shots were taken from position 2 (left-hand image), and they scored at a very low percentage. However, shots from position 5 and 6 were taken at a lower volume, but scored at a high percentage. Similarly, there was a very low volume of lob shots taken from position 1 (left), but such shots scored fairly well compared to other positions.

I believe that the high scoring rate of lob shots from these two positions is due to the distance from the goal. The odds of scoring are affected by the shooter’s position in the pool. (Stay tuned for our upcoming deep dive into this topic!) In addition, the closer a shooter is to the goal, the less reaction time the goalie has. To help remedy the lack of reaction time, goalies typically have their hands out of the water before the ball is shot; however, this makes it more difficult to react to a lob shot.

How can I track these stats and compare individuals?

At CB Water Polo, we want every coach to be able to track stats and receive analytical feedback regarding his or her team. CB Water Polo allows coaches to compare individuals across an entire season and in different offensive scenarios. CB Water Polo App will help you Coach Better (CB), and play smarter!

Help me win!

Practice skip shots! Both boys and girls should practice skip shots. If your coach doesn’t let you shoot skips, then get in before practice starts and stay after practice ends. Work on skip shots that allow you to shoot past field blockers. Learn how to shoot wrap and lean shots under your opponent’s armpit and over your opponent’s head. Study your release points and how that affects the bounce of the ball. And lastly, learn to finish 1-0 skips under the goalies arms. A quick release on a “high-low” shot is extremely difficult for a lot of goalies. We can move our arms up faster than we can move them down!

Practice blocking skips too! Goalies should work on blocking skip shots. Dedicate some time in warm up to only blocking skip shots. This allows both the goalie and the field players to improve. Volleyballs, or any other ball that bounces off of the water well, are great for working on reactions. If you don’t have volleyballs, use smaller water polo balls or deflated balls, which are easier to skip. Plus, everyone loves having a ball that’s a little deflated. Lastly, throwing tennis balls off the deck is another great way to have a goalie work on reactions to skips. The better a goalie is at blocking skips, the better the goalie will be at blocking normal shots too!

Final Thought

A typical men’s game will contain around 30 shots per team. Games are often decided by one goal. Having better shot selection can ensure you make every shot count!

Reference:

Joey Gullikson, John. K. Mayberry, Lewis. R. Gale & Lara Killick (2020): Not

throwing away my shot: an analysis of shot features in men’s collegiate water polo, International

Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2020.1741915