Italy vs Hungary - Should you win or lose?
Quarterfinal Scenarios: Women
Group A
In Group A of the preliminary rounds of women’s Olympic water polo, the sides from Spain, Australia, the Netherlands and Canada have secured their spot in the quarterfinals. Spain has secured the top spot in the group with 3 wins and 1 loss and wins the head-to-head scenarios against Australia and the Netherlands. Were Australia to lose to South Africa (extremely unlikely) and the Netherlands beat Canada, Australia would lose their second place spot to the Dutch. The Canadians can swap the fourth place spot with the third place spot in the group by beating the Netherlands.
Group B
Group B hasn’t finished as almost everyone predicted, but there are still some interesting scenarios playing out. Currently, the four teams that have qualified are the USA, Hungary, the Russian Olympic Committee and China, and the results of the final round of games will determine the standings for the crossovers in the quarterfinals. Hungary holds its fate in its own hands against China. A win and they shock the world and take first in the group over the US. However, a loss to China could drop the Hungarian team to third in the group if the ROC wins against Japan. The most unlikely scenario would occur with China beating Hungary and Japan beating the ROC. In this case, China could move to third in the group.
Prediction:
Group A
Spain
Netherlands
Australia
Canada
Group B
Hungary
USA
ROC
China
Quarterfinal Matchups:
1 Spain vs. 4 China
1 Hungary vs. 4 Canada
2 USA vs. 3 Australia
2 Netherlands vs. 3 ROC
Quarterfinal Scenarios: Men
Group A
The final games in the preliminary rounds of Olympic men's water polo are high stakes placement games as teams in both groups try to secure final standings going into the quarterfinal crossovers. In Group A, the USA will finish 4th in the group even if they can win their game against Greece and get help from an Italian win as they lose the head-to-head with Hungary. At the top of the group, Greece and Italy sit tied at 7 points a piece, but a US win against Greece and an Italian win seals the top spot for Italy. If both squads win their final game, it will come down to goal differential to determine 1st and 2nd place, which is currently Italy 28 - Greece 25. The most interesting scenarios will be determined by the Hungarians, who can finish as high as 1st and as low as 3rd. The Hungarians will be hoping for a win for the USA if they can secure their own victory; in that scenario they win the group and goal differential determines 2nd and 3rd for Greece and Italy. Even without a win for the United States, the Hungarians will be motivated against Italy as a win for them vaults them over the Italians for 2nd in the group.
Group B
The possible scenarios in Group B are much more straightforward. The four teams in the quarterfinals currently sit with Spain leading the group with 8 points, Croatia (somewhat surprisingly after an early loss to Australia) in second with 6 points, and Montenegro and Serbia knotted at 4 points. Spain will look to keep its hot start to these Olympics going to close out the group undefeated against Croatia, but the Croatian squad has come to form in these later games and winning the group would certainly make a statement after the slow start. Both teams know a win gets them a more favorable matchup with the USA in a crossover rather than one of the more traditional European powers in Italy, Hungary or Greece. Reigning Olympic champion Serbia will make the quarterfinals, but unless they can get a win against Montenegro in the final game of group play they will finish a disappointing 4th in the group. Both Serbia and Montenegro certainly will be looking at the possible results on the other side of the bracket as they go into this game as matchups in the crossover could enter their minds. It begs the question, if you are Hungary or Italy, would you rather play Serbia or Croatia? The winning team plays Serbia.
Prediction:
Group A
Greece
Hungary
Italy
USA
Group B
Spain
2. Croatia
3. Serbia
4. Montenegro
Quarterfinal Matchups:
1 Greece vs. 4 Montenegro
1 Spain vs. 4 USA
2 Hungary vs. 3 Serbia
2 Croatia vs. 3 Italy